A 4th of July Prediction


Many Americans are preparing to celebrate the 4th of July despite the dangers posed by the COVID-19 Pandemic. I have a couple of predictions.

American unwillingness to take COVID-19 seriously is going to collapse our economy worse than shutting down would have. Because, we are about to see the largest single day and single week spikes we’ve experienced which will convince the EU, Australia, New Zealand, and nearly every other country around the world to issue a ban on all American travel. This will include business travel as well as tourist travel and that will hurt our economy more than shutting down would have.

I expect July 10 – 18th will easily be the worse 8 days for COVID positive tests we’ve experienced to present and I wouldn’t be surprised if we were seeing numbers of 70,000 or more new cases a day during that 8 day period as infections take hold from 4th of July parties. They will make the record setting days of June seem small in comparison. This will make July also the most deadly month for COVID-19. Roughly, 0.05% of those infected with COVID die. On a small scale it seems insignificant, but this means if there is just 100,000 infections from 4th of July parties that would be another 5,000 dead. Of course, there won’t be just 100,000 infections… total I’d guess infections for the 10th through the 18th will be around 500,000, which is closer to 25,000 more dead.

And it’s going to happen during the EU discussions on banning all travel to and from the US. So, we have that to look forward to in the next couple weeks.

If you feel you must celebrate in a group; please take precautions and follow guidelines on masks and handwashing so you aren’t among the 400,000+ or so new infections.

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